TGM's two-stage DCF values Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) between $186.08 and $348.72 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $254.22. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$343.64 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +25.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $186.08 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $254.22 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $348.72 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 12, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $320.01 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$343.64
Market-Implied Growth
+25.6%/yr
vs +25.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$186.08 – $348.72
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TPL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $444.5M · 0.07B shares · net cash $128.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$254.22
-26.0% vs $343.64
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $343.64; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $334 | $377 | $434 | $514 | $634 |
| 6.5% | $264 | $289 | $321 | $363 | $418 |
| 7.5% | $217 | $234 | $254 | $279 | $310 |
| 8.5% | $184 | $196 | $210 | $226 | $245 |
| 9.5% | $159 | $168 | $178 | $189 | $202 |
