Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TOST
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($11.06) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $7.98 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $9.43 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $11.06 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $41.94 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$34.48
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$9.43
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TOST (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $199.5M · 0.58B shares · net cash $1.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$9.43
-72.6% vs $34.48
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $34.48; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $10.69 | $11.16 | $11.68 | $12.29 | $13.00 |
| 10.5% | $9.67 | $10.02 | $10.41 | $10.86 | $11.37 |
| 11.5% | $8.86 | $9.13 | $9.43 | $9.77 | $10.15 |
| 12.5% | $8.19 | $8.41 | $8.65 | $8.91 | $9.20 |
| 13.5% | $7.64 | $7.82 | $8.01 | $8.22 | $8.45 |
