TGM's two-stage DCF values Thor Industries, Inc. (THO) between $112.46 and $176.49 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $135.64. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$76.66 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -10.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.7% | $112.46 |
| Base case | 2.1%/yr | 10.7% | $135.64 |
| Optimistic | 5.1%/yr | 9.7% | $176.49 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $104.27 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$76.66
Market-Implied Growth
-10.9%/yr
vs +0.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$112.46 – $176.49
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for THO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $601.4M · 0.05B shares · net debt $336.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$135.64
+76.9% vs $76.66
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $76.66; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $161 | $170 | $181 | $194 | $210 |
| 9.7% | $140 | $147 | $155 | $165 | $175 |
| 10.7% | $124 | $130 | $136 | $143 | $150 |
| 11.7% | $111 | $116 | $120 | $126 | $131 |
| 12.7% | $101 | $104 | $108 | $112 | $117 |
