TGM's two-stage DCF values Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) between $12.69 and $20.17 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $15.87. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$18.60 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.5%/yr | 12.5% | $12.69 |
| Base case | 9.5%/yr | 11.5% | $15.87 |
| Optimistic | 12.5%/yr | 10.5% | $20.17 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $7.04 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$18.60
Market-Implied Growth
+13.6%/yr
vs +9.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$12.69 – $20.17
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $104.9M · 0.10B shares · net cash $8.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$15.87
-14.7% vs $18.60
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $18.60; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $18.53 | $19.50 | $20.61 | $21.89 | $23.38 |
| 10.5% | $16.37 | $17.11 | $17.94 | $18.88 | $19.95 |
| 11.5% | $14.66 | $15.23 | $15.87 | $16.58 | $17.38 |
| 12.5% | $13.25 | $13.71 | $14.22 | $14.77 | $15.39 |
| 13.5% | $12.09 | $12.46 | $12.87 | $13.31 | $13.80 |
