TGM's two-stage DCF values TE Connectivity plc (TEL) between $108.74 and $195.10 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $144.53. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$216.76 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.0%/yr | 10.9% | $108.74 |
| Base case | 9.0%/yr | 9.9% | $144.53 |
| Optimistic | 12.0%/yr | 8.9% | $195.10 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 4, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $170.01 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$216.76
Market-Implied Growth
+18.4%/yr
vs +12.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$108.74 – $195.10
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TEL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.6B · 0.29B shares · net debt $4.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$144.53
-33.3% vs $216.76
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $216.76; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | $177 | $191 | $207 | $226 | $250 |
| 8.9% | $150 | $160 | $171 | $184 | $199 |
| 9.9% | $129 | $136 | $145 | $154 | $165 |
| 10.9% | $113 | $118 | $125 | $132 | $139 |
| 11.9% | $99.69 | $104 | $109 | $114 | $120 |
