TGM's two-stage DCF values Tencent Holdings Limited (TCEHY) between $41.40 and $82.17 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $57.30. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$55.58 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +6.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.8% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.1%/yr | 8.8% | $41.40 |
| Base case | 7.1%/yr | 7.8% | $57.30 |
| Optimistic | 10.1%/yr | 6.8% | $82.17 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $52.37 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$55.58
Market-Implied Growth
+6.4%/yr
vs +6.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$41.40 – $82.17
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TCEHY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $23.4B · 9.01B shares · net debt $34.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$57.30
+3.1% vs $55.58
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $55.58; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $74.55 | $83.53 | $95.22 | $111 | $134 |
| 6.8% | $59.43 | $64.99 | $71.84 | $80.49 | $91.74 |
| 7.8% | $49.13 | $52.86 | $57.30 | $62.66 | $69.26 |
| 8.8% | $41.65 | $44.31 | $47.39 | $51.00 | $55.28 |
| 9.8% | $35.99 | $37.96 | $40.20 | $42.77 | $45.74 |
