TGM's two-stage DCF values Tencent Holdings Limited (TCEHY) between $37.43 and $74.48 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $51.88. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$53.95 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.9%/yr | 8.8% | $37.43 |
| Base case | 4.9%/yr | 7.8% | $51.88 |
| Optimistic | 7.9%/yr | 6.8% | $74.48 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $51.60 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$53.95
Market-Implied Growth
+5.8%/yr
vs +2.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$37.43 – $74.48
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TCEHY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $23.4B · 9.01B shares · net debt $34.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$51.88
-3.8% vs $53.95
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $53.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $67.42 | $75.51 | $86.05 | $100 | $121 |
| 6.8% | $53.79 | $58.81 | $64.99 | $72.78 | $82.93 |
| 7.8% | $44.50 | $47.87 | $51.88 | $56.71 | $62.66 |
| 8.8% | $37.76 | $40.16 | $42.94 | $46.19 | $50.05 |
| 9.8% | $32.64 | $34.43 | $36.45 | $38.76 | $41.44 |
