Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TANH
Even the conservative scenario ($146.94) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $146.94 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $175.62 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $231.69 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $2,116.97 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$16.88
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$175.62
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TANH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.4M · 0.00B shares · net cash $29.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$175.62
+940.4% vs $16.88
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $16.88; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $214 | $235 | $263 | $302 | $361 |
| 6.5% | $180 | $193 | $208 | $229 | $256 |
| 7.5% | $157 | $166 | $176 | $188 | $203 |
| 8.5% | $141 | $147 | $154 | $162 | $171 |
| 9.5% | $129 | $133 | $138 | $144 | $150 |
