TGM's two-stage DCF values AT&T Inc. (T) between $23.49 and $59.23 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $35.59. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$25.61 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -2.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $23.49 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $35.59 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $59.23 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $230.52 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$25.61
Market-Implied Growth
-2.5%/yr
vs -9.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$23.49 – $59.23
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for T (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $19.0B · 6.85B shares · net debt $136.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$35.59
+39.0% vs $25.61
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $25.61; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $51.88 | $60.73 | $72.53 | $89.02 | $114 |
| 6.5% | $37.48 | $42.80 | $49.44 | $57.97 | $69.33 |
| 7.5% | $27.89 | $31.39 | $35.59 | $40.71 | $47.11 |
| 8.5% | $21.03 | $23.49 | $26.35 | $29.73 | $33.78 |
| 9.5% | $15.89 | $17.69 | $19.75 | $22.12 | $24.88 |
