TGM's two-stage DCF values Sysco Corporation (SYY) between $74.21 and $168.72 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $110.58. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$79.84 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.2%/yr | 8.5% | $74.21 |
| Base case | 13.2%/yr | 7.5% | $110.58 |
| Optimistic | 16.2%/yr | 6.5% | $168.72 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $83.65 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$79.84
Market-Implied Growth
+7.0%/yr
vs +5.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$74.21 – $168.72
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SYY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.0B · 0.48B shares · net debt $11.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$110.58
+38.5% vs $79.84
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $79.84; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $152 | $175 | $205 | $247 | $311 |
| 6.5% | $115 | $129 | $146 | $168 | $197 |
| 7.5% | $90.97 | $99.89 | $111 | $124 | $140 |
| 8.5% | $73.51 | $79.76 | $87.04 | $95.63 | $106 |
| 9.5% | $60.46 | $65.04 | $70.26 | $76.28 | $83.29 |
