Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SYM
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Symbotic Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $3.32 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $3.67 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $4.06 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $31.11 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$40.18
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$3.67
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SYM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $53.5M · 0.64B shares · net cash $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$3.67
-90.9% vs $40.18
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $40.18; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $3.98 | $4.09 | $4.22 | $4.36 | $4.53 |
| 10.5% | $3.73 | $3.81 | $3.91 | $4.02 | $4.14 |
| 11.5% | $3.53 | $3.60 | $3.67 | $3.75 | $3.84 |
| 12.5% | $3.37 | $3.42 | $3.48 | $3.54 | $3.61 |
| 13.5% | $3.24 | $3.28 | $3.33 | $3.38 | $3.43 |
