TGM's two-stage DCF values Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) between $16.74 and $47.82 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $27.77. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$89.24 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.9% | $16.74 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.9% | $27.77 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.9% | $47.82 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $36.69 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$89.24
Market-Implied Growth
+18.8%/yr
vs +0.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$16.74 – $47.82
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SWK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $720.5M · 0.15B shares · net debt $5.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$27.77
-68.9% vs $89.24
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $89.24; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | $40.30 | $45.50 | $51.66 | $59.07 | $68.15 |
| 8.9% | $29.83 | $33.55 | $37.85 | $42.87 | $48.81 |
| 9.9% | $21.85 | $24.62 | $27.77 | $31.36 | $35.51 |
| 10.9% | $15.57 | $17.70 | $20.08 | $22.76 | $25.80 |
| 11.9% | $10.50 | $12.18 | $14.03 | $16.09 | $18.39 |