TGM's two-stage DCF values Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) between $16.26 and $46.45 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $26.97. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$92.56 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +20.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.9% | $16.26 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.9% | $26.97 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.9% | $46.45 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $39.21 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$92.56
Market-Implied Growth
+20.0%/yr
vs -0.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$16.26 – $46.45
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SWK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $720.5M · 0.16B shares · net debt $5.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$26.97
-70.9% vs $92.56
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $92.56; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | $39.15 | $44.20 | $50.19 | $57.38 | $66.20 |
| 8.9% | $28.97 | $32.59 | $36.77 | $41.64 | $47.41 |
| 9.9% | $21.23 | $23.92 | $26.97 | $30.46 | $34.49 |
| 10.9% | $15.12 | $17.20 | $19.51 | $22.11 | $25.06 |
| 11.9% | $10.20 | $11.83 | $13.63 | $15.63 | $17.87 |
