Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) between $15.06 and $43.92 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $25.32. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$83.62 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.1% | $15.06 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.1% | $25.32 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.1% | $43.92 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $40.32 | |
Current Price
$83.62
Market-Implied Growth
+18.9%/yr
vs +0.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$15.06 – $43.92
model output — not a price target
SWK DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SWK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $720.5M · 0.16B shares · net debt $5.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$24.37
-70.9% vs $83.62
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $83.62; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $38.10 | $41.58 | $45.68 | $50.59 | $56.56 |
| 9.1% | $28.27 | $30.66 | $33.41 | $36.62 | $40.39 |
| 10.1% | $20.74 | $22.44 | $24.37 | $26.57 | $29.11 |
| 11.1% | $14.78 | $16.03 | $17.43 | $19.00 | $20.78 |
| 12.1% | $9.94 | $10.89 | $11.93 | $13.08 | $14.38 |
About Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) is a global enterprise primarily engaged in two core business segments: Tools & Storage and Industrial operations. Its geographical footprint extends across the United States, Canada, the wider Americas region, France, the rest of Europe, and Asia. The Tools & Storage segment provides a comprehensive array of products catering to both professional and consumer markets. For professionals, offerings include high-grade corded and cordless electric power tools, essential equipment, pneumatic tools, and fastening solutions. Consumers can access corded and cordless electric power tools, notably under the BLACK+DECKER brand, alongside lawn and garden equipment, related accessories, various home products, hand tools, power tool accessories, and storage units. This division distributes its merchandise through a diverse network comprising retailers, distributors, and dealers, supplemented by a direct sales force. Its customer base spans professional end-users, distributors, dealers, retail consumers, and various industrial clients. The company's Industrial segment delivers specialized engineered fastening systems and related products to key sectors such as automotive, manufacturing, electronics, construction, and aerospace. It also specializes in the sale and rental of custom equipment for pipe handling, joint welding, and coating used in pipeline construction, while simultaneously offering pipeline inspection services. Furthermore, this segment supplies hydraulic tools and high-performance heavy equipment attachments. Clients for this segment primarily include the oil and natural gas pipeline industry, alongside other industrial customers. Additionally, Stanley Black & Decker markets automatic door solutions to commercial enterprises. Founded in 1843, the company initially operated as The Stanley Works before adopting its current name, Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., in March 2010. Its corporate headquarters are located in New Britain, Connecticut.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
- CEO
- Christopher John Nelson