Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SWIM
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($2.28) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$6.43 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +26.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $0.94 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $1.42 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $2.28 |
Current Price
$6.43
Market-Implied Growth
+26.7%/yr
vs -3.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$1.42
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SWIM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $33.6M · 0.12B shares · net debt $208.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$1.42
-77.9% vs $6.43
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $6.43; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $1.93 | $2.12 | $2.33 | $2.57 | $2.86 |
| 10.5% | $1.52 | $1.66 | $1.82 | $2.00 | $2.20 |
| 11.5% | $1.19 | $1.30 | $1.42 | $1.56 | $1.71 |
| 12.5% | $0.91 | $1.00 | $1.10 | $1.21 | $1.33 |
| 13.5% | $0.69 | $0.76 | $0.84 | $0.92 | $1.02 |
