Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SUNB
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($24.43) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$75.40 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +32.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.9%/yr | 12.5% | $8.55 |
| Base case | 4.9%/yr | 11.5% | $15.30 |
| Optimistic | 7.9%/yr | 10.5% | $24.43 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 27, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $85.94 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$75.40
Market-Implied Growth
+32.1%/yr
Base-Case Model Value
$15.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SUNB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 0.41B shares · net debt $7.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$15.30
-79.7% vs $75.40
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $75.40; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $20.80 | $22.81 | $25.11 | $27.75 | $30.83 |
| 10.5% | $16.34 | $17.87 | $19.59 | $21.53 | $23.74 |
| 11.5% | $12.78 | $13.98 | $15.30 | $16.77 | $18.43 |
| 12.5% | $9.87 | $10.83 | $11.87 | $13.02 | $14.30 |
| 13.5% | $7.45 | $8.23 | $9.07 | $9.98 | $10.99 |
