TGM's two-stage DCF values Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) between $110.58 and $222.84 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $153.78. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$60.57 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.5%/yr | 8.5% | $110.58 |
| Base case | 13.5%/yr | 7.5% | $153.78 |
| Optimistic | 16.5%/yr | 6.5% | $222.84 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 7, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $131.63 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$60.57
Market-Implied Growth
-6.7%/yr
vs +13.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$110.58 – $222.84
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.8B · 1.18B shares · net debt $7.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$153.78
+153.9% vs $60.57
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $60.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $203 | $230 | $266 | $316 | $392 |
| 6.5% | $160 | $176 | $196 | $222 | $256 |
| 7.5% | $130 | $141 | $154 | $169 | $189 |
| 8.5% | $110 | $117 | $126 | $136 | $148 |
| 9.5% | $94.20 | $99.63 | $106 | $113 | $121 |
