TGM's two-stage DCF values Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) between $102.23 and $206.31 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $142.28. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$67.68 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -4.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.7%/yr | 8.5% | $102.23 |
| Base case | 11.7%/yr | 7.5% | $142.28 |
| Optimistic | 14.7%/yr | 6.5% | $206.31 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $121.34 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$67.68
Market-Implied Growth
-4.5%/yr
vs +11.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$102.23 – $206.31
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.8B · 1.18B shares · net debt $7.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$142.28
+110.2% vs $67.68
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $67.68; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $188 | $213 | $246 | $292 | $361 |
| 6.5% | $148 | $163 | $181 | $205 | $237 |
| 7.5% | $121 | $131 | $142 | $157 | $174 |
| 8.5% | $102 | $108 | $116 | $126 | $137 |
| 9.5% | $87.31 | $92.33 | $98.06 | $105 | $112 |
