TGM's two-stage DCF values Strattec Security Corporation (STRT) between $88.90 and $131.97 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $106.75. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$65.93 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -10.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.5%/yr | 10.9% | $88.90 |
| Base case | 6.5%/yr | 9.9% | $106.75 |
| Optimistic | 9.5%/yr | 8.9% | $131.97 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $141.83 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$65.93
Market-Implied Growth
-10.4%/yr
vs +6.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$88.90 – $131.97
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for STRT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $20.7M · 0.00B shares · net cash $108.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$106.75
+61.9% vs $65.93
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $65.93; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | $123 | $130 | $137 | $147 | $159 |
| 8.9% | $109 | $114 | $120 | $126 | $134 |
| 9.9% | $99.15 | $103 | $107 | $111 | $117 |
| 10.9% | $91.10 | $93.83 | $96.89 | $100 | $104 |
| 11.9% | $84.61 | $86.76 | $89.14 | $91.78 | $94.73 |
