TGM's two-stage DCF values Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) between $212.26 and $325.66 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $265.79. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$547.06 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +38.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $212.26 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $265.79 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $325.66 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $251.15 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$547.06
Market-Implied Growth
+38.0%/yr
vs +18.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$212.26 – $325.66
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for STRL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $388.4M · 0.03B shares · net cash $99.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$265.79
-51.4% vs $547.06
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $547.06; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $312 | $329 | $349 | $371 | $397 |
| 10.5% | $275 | $287 | $302 | $318 | $337 |
| 11.5% | $245 | $255 | $266 | $278 | $292 |
| 12.5% | $220 | $228 | $237 | $247 | $257 |
| 13.5% | $200 | $206 | $214 | $221 | $230 |
