TGM's two-stage DCF values Strategic Education, Inc. (STRA) between $89.85 and $169.30 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $120.42. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$79.18 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -3.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.7%/yr | 8.5% | $89.85 |
| Base case | 6.7%/yr | 7.5% | $120.42 |
| Optimistic | 9.7%/yr | 6.5% | $169.30 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $178.91 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$79.18
Market-Implied Growth
-3.6%/yr
vs +10.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$89.85 – $169.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for STRA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $105.8M · 0.02B shares · net cash $140.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$120.42
+52.1% vs $79.18
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $79.18; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $155 | $173 | $198 | $233 | $285 |
| 6.5% | $124 | $136 | $150 | $167 | $191 |
| 7.5% | $104 | $112 | $120 | $131 | $145 |
| 8.5% | $89.86 | $95.01 | $101 | $108 | $117 |
| 9.5% | $79.08 | $82.86 | $87.17 | $92.14 | $97.94 |