Stellantis N.V. (STLA) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for STLA
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Stellantis N.V. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years; free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$6.34 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +2.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.0% | $11.40 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.0% | $16.75 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.0% | $23.40 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $65.27 | |
Current Price
$6.34
Market-Implied Growth
+2.7%/yr
vs +25.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$16.75
model output — not a price target
STLA DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for STLA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.2B · 2.90B shares · net debt $16.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$32.85
+418.2% vs $6.34
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $6.34; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $45.16 | $49.10 | $53.91 | $59.92 | $67.66 |
| 8.0% | $35.84 | $38.39 | $41.41 | $45.03 | $49.46 |
| 9.0% | $29.09 | $30.84 | $32.85 | $35.20 | $37.98 |
| 10.0% | $24.01 | $25.25 | $26.66 | $28.26 | $30.12 |
| 11.0% | $20.05 | $20.96 | $21.98 | $23.12 | $24.42 |
About Stellantis N.V.
Stellantis N.V. operates as a global automotive powerhouse, specializing in the conceptualization, development, production, and worldwide distribution of passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, internal combustion engines, sophisticated transmission setups, metal components, and manufacturing systems. Its extensive product portfolio features a broad spectrum of passenger automobiles, ranging from luxury and premium segments to mainstream offerings, alongside robust pickup trucks, versatile sport utility vehicles (SUVs), and a variety of commercial transport options. Beyond vehicle sales, the company also supplies genuine parts, offers comprehensive maintenance services, and provides diverse financial solutions, including retail and dealer financing, vehicle leasing, and rental programs. These varied offerings are brought to market through a distinguished collection of brands such as Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Citroën, DS, Dodge, Fiat, Fiat Professional, Jeep, Maserati, Ram, Opel, Lancia, Vauxhall, Peugeot, Teksid, and Comau. Stellantis employs a multi-channel distribution strategy, engaging directly with customers as well as leveraging an extensive network of independent distributors and authorized dealerships. The company, which traces its origins back to 1899, is headquartered in Hoofddorp, the Netherlands.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto - Manufacturers
- CEO
- Antonio Filosa