Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SQM
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($38.15) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$79.01 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +41.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.1% | $18.24 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.1% | $27.14 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.1% | $38.15 |
Current Price
$79.01
Market-Implied Growth
+41.1%/yr
vs +27.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$27.14
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SQM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $370.3M · 0.29B shares · net debt $3.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$27.14
-65.7% vs $79.01
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $79.01; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $36.06 | $40.05 | $44.91 | $50.95 | $58.66 |
| 8.1% | $28.48 | $31.21 | $34.42 | $38.27 | $42.94 |
| 9.1% | $22.91 | $24.88 | $27.14 | $29.77 | $32.86 |
| 10.1% | $18.66 | $20.13 | $21.79 | $23.68 | $25.86 |
| 11.1% | $15.31 | $16.44 | $17.70 | $19.12 | $20.72 |
