Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SQ
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($32.70) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$88.67 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +48.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.5%/yr | 12.5% | $23.20 |
| Base case | 9.5%/yr | 11.5% | $27.24 |
| Optimistic | 12.5%/yr | 10.5% | $32.70 |
Current Price
$88.67
Market-Implied Growth
+48.2%/yr
vs +9.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$27.24
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SQ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $779.2M · 0.58B shares · net cash $4.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$27.24
-69.3% vs $88.67
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $88.67; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $30.61 | $31.84 | $33.25 | $34.87 | $36.76 |
| 10.5% | $27.88 | $28.82 | $29.87 | $31.06 | $32.41 |
| 11.5% | $25.70 | $26.43 | $27.24 | $28.15 | $29.16 |
| 12.5% | $23.93 | $24.51 | $25.15 | $25.85 | $26.63 |
| 13.5% | $22.45 | $22.92 | $23.44 | $24.00 | $24.61 |
