TGM's two-stage DCF values SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) between $100.67 and $191.02 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $136.33. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$81.02 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.3%/yr | 8.5% | $100.67 |
| Base case | 17.3%/yr | 7.5% | $136.33 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $191.02 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $153.36 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$81.02
Market-Implied Growth
+4.3%/yr
vs +17.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$100.67 – $191.02
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SPSC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $124.9M · 0.04B shares · net cash $151.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$136.33
+68.3% vs $81.02
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $81.02; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $178 | $200 | $230 | $272 | $335 |
| 6.5% | $141 | $155 | $171 | $193 | $222 |
| 7.5% | $117 | $126 | $136 | $149 | $165 |
| 8.5% | $99.58 | $106 | $113 | $121 | $132 |
| 9.5% | $86.65 | $91.18 | $96.35 | $102 | $109 |
