Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) DCF Valuation
Two independent models estimate Spotify Technology S.A.'s fair value between $148.89 (conservative case) and $307.23 (analyst consensus).
What would today's price require?
$503.10 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.0% a year for the next decade — slower than the company has actually grown.
Current Price
$503.10
Fair-Value Range
$148.89 – $307.23
Market-Implied Growth
+23.0%/yr
vs +67.0% 5Y actual
SPOT DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.21B shares · net cash $4.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$148.89
-70.4% vs $503.10
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $503.10; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $180 | $189 | $198 | $210 | $224 |
| 9.0% | $158 | $163 | $170 | $177 | $186 |
| 10.0% | $140 | $144 | $149 | $154 | $160 |
| 11.0% | $127 | $130 | $133 | $137 | $141 |
| 12.0% | $116 | $118 | $120 | $123 | $126 |
About Spotify Technology S.A.
Spotify Technology S.A., through its various entities, functions as a global provider of audio streaming services. Its operational model is split into two distinct segments: Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment caters to subscribers by granting them uninterrupted, ad-free access to its extensive catalog of music and podcasts, available for both online and offline consumption. Conversely, the Ad-Supported segment delivers online, on-demand music streaming and unlimited podcast access to users, facilitated by advertisements and available across computers, tablets, and various mobile devices. Beyond its core streaming offerings, Spotify also manages functions like sales, marketing, outsourced research and development, and comprehensive customer support. By the end of 2021 (December 31), the platform had amassed a significant global user base, comprising 406 million monthly active users and 180 million premium subscribers spanning 184 nations and regions. Incorporated in 2006, the firm's corporate headquarters are situated in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Internet Content & Information
- CEO
- Alex Norström