Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SPOT
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($207.43) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$482.66 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +48.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.4%/yr | 12.5% | $136.78 |
| Base case | 16.4%/yr | 11.5% | $166.82 |
| Optimistic | 19.4%/yr | 10.5% | $207.43 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $293.75 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$482.66
Market-Implied Growth
+48.3%/yr
vs +16.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$166.82
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SPOT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.21B shares · net cash $4.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$166.82
-65.4% vs $482.66
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $482.66; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $193 | $202 | $213 | $225 | $240 |
| 10.5% | $172 | $179 | $187 | $196 | $207 |
| 11.5% | $155 | $161 | $167 | $174 | $182 |
| 12.5% | $141 | $146 | $151 | $156 | $162 |
| 13.5% | $130 | $134 | $138 | $142 | $147 |
