Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SPOT
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($201.11) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$531.47 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +51.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.5%/yr | 12.5% | $132.89 |
| Base case | 15.5%/yr | 11.5% | $161.89 |
| Optimistic | 18.5%/yr | 10.5% | $201.11 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $290.43 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$531.47
Market-Implied Growth
+51.3%/yr
vs +15.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$161.89
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SPOT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.21B shares · net cash $4.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$161.89
-69.5% vs $531.47
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $531.47; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $187 | $196 | $206 | $218 | $232 |
| 10.5% | $167 | $174 | $181 | $190 | $200 |
| 11.5% | $151 | $156 | $162 | $169 | $176 |
| 12.5% | $137 | $142 | $146 | $152 | $157 |
| 13.5% | $127 | $130 | $134 | $138 | $143 |
