TGM's two-stage DCF values Sanofi (SNY) between $64.92 and $131.85 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $90.67. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$44.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.9%/yr | 8.5% | $64.92 |
| Base case | 8.9%/yr | 7.5% | $90.67 |
| Optimistic | 11.9%/yr | 6.5% | $131.85 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $136.20 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$44.83
Market-Implied Growth
-6.1%/yr
vs +12.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$64.92 – $131.85
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SNY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $8.6B · 2.40B shares · net debt $12.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$90.67
+102.3% vs $44.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $44.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $120 | $136 | $157 | $186 | $230 |
| 6.5% | $94.08 | $104 | $115 | $131 | $151 |
| 7.5% | $76.96 | $83.20 | $90.67 | $99.81 | $111 |
| 8.5% | $64.75 | $69.12 | $74.21 | $80.23 | $87.43 |
| 9.5% | $55.61 | $58.82 | $62.47 | $66.69 | $71.60 |
