Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SNOW
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($72.33) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.6% | $46.10 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.6% | $58.27 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.6% | $72.33 |
Current Price
$333.38
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$58.27
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SNOW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $846.2M · 0.35B shares · net cash $498.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$58.27
-82.5% vs $333.38
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $333.38; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $69.34 | $73.68 | $78.73 | $84.67 | $91.77 |
| 9.6% | $60.22 | $63.41 | $67.04 | $71.22 | $76.08 |
| 10.6% | $53.13 | $55.55 | $58.27 | $61.35 | $64.85 |
| 11.6% | $47.48 | $49.37 | $51.46 | $53.80 | $56.42 |
| 12.6% | $42.86 | $44.37 | $46.02 | $47.85 | $49.87 |
