Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SNOW
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($70.20) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.8% | $45.06 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.8% | $56.78 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.8% | $70.20 |
Current Price
$268.06
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$56.78
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SNOW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $846.2M · 0.35B shares · net cash $498.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$56.78
-78.8% vs $268.06
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $268.06; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $67.31 | $71.38 | $76.09 | $81.60 | $88.15 |
| 9.8% | $58.66 | $61.67 | $65.09 | $69.01 | $73.54 |
| 10.8% | $51.90 | $54.20 | $56.78 | $59.68 | $62.97 |
| 11.8% | $46.48 | $48.28 | $50.28 | $52.50 | $54.98 |
| 12.8% | $42.04 | $43.48 | $45.07 | $46.81 | $48.73 |
