TGM's two-stage DCF values Smart Sand, Inc. (SND) between $6.49 and $12.01 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $8.80. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$5.33 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $6.49 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $8.80 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $12.01 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $4.61 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$5.33
Market-Implied Growth
+5.5%/yr
vs +29.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$6.49 – $12.01
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SND (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $9.4M · 0.04B shares · net cash $9.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$8.80
+65.2% vs $5.33
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $5.33; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $11.50 | $12.96 | $14.90 | $17.63 | $21.71 |
| 6.5% | $9.12 | $9.99 | $11.08 | $12.49 | $14.36 |
| 7.5% | $7.54 | $8.11 | $8.80 | $9.64 | $10.69 |
| 8.5% | $6.41 | $6.81 | $7.28 | $7.83 | $8.50 |
| 9.5% | $5.57 | $5.86 | $6.20 | $6.59 | $7.04 |
