TGM's two-stage DCF values Snap-on Incorporated (SNA) between $305.46 and $553.93 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $396.30. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$416.35 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.8% | $305.46 |
| Base case | 2.7%/yr | 7.8% | $396.30 |
| Optimistic | 5.7%/yr | 6.8% | $553.93 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $374.03 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$416.35
Market-Implied Growth
+3.9%/yr
vs +0.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$305.46 – $553.93
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SNA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.0B · 0.05B shares · net cash $360.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$396.30
-4.8% vs $416.35
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $416.35; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $504 | $560 | $633 | $731 | $873 |
| 6.8% | $410 | $444 | $487 | $541 | $611 |
| 7.8% | $345 | $369 | $396 | $430 | $471 |
| 8.8% | $299 | $315 | $334 | $357 | $384 |
| 9.8% | $263 | $276 | $290 | $306 | $324 |
