Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SN
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($50.28) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$162.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +57.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.9%/yr | 11.0% | $29.92 |
| Base case | 16.9%/yr | 10.0% | $38.37 |
| Optimistic | 19.9%/yr | 9.0% | $50.28 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $41.00 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$162.83
Market-Implied Growth
+57.2%/yr
vs +15.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$38.37
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $222.1M · 0.14B shares · net cash $41.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$38.37
-76.4% vs $162.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $162.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $46.30 | $49.56 | $53.42 | $58.04 | $63.68 |
| 9.0% | $39.68 | $42.02 | $44.72 | $47.87 | $51.58 |
| 10.0% | $34.65 | $36.39 | $38.37 | $40.62 | $43.22 |
| 11.0% | $30.69 | $32.03 | $33.53 | $35.21 | $37.12 |
| 12.0% | $27.50 | $28.56 | $29.72 | $31.02 | $32.46 |
