TGM's two-stage DCF values SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW) between $45.32 and $110.30 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $72.80. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$96.80 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.3%/yr | 12.1% | $45.32 |
| Base case | 10.3%/yr | 11.1% | $72.80 |
| Optimistic | 13.3%/yr | 10.1% | $110.30 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $85.04 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$96.80
Market-Implied Growth
+14.6%/yr
vs +7.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$45.32 – $110.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SKYW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $325.6M · 0.04B shares · net debt $2.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$72.80
-24.8% vs $96.80
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $96.80; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | $96.28 | $105 | $115 | $127 | $141 |
| 10.1% | $77.11 | $83.74 | $91.24 | $99.78 | $110 |
| 11.1% | $61.97 | $67.09 | $72.80 | $79.20 | $86.43 |
| 12.1% | $49.72 | $53.77 | $58.23 | $63.17 | $68.68 |
| 13.1% | $39.62 | $42.88 | $46.44 | $50.34 | $54.65 |
