TGM's two-stage DCF values SkinHealth Systems Inc. (SKIN) between $0.03 and $0.85 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $0.37. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$0.58 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.2%/yr | 10.1% | $0.03 |
| Base case | 9.2%/yr | 9.1% | $0.37 |
| Optimistic | 12.2%/yr | 8.1% | $0.85 |
Current Price
$0.58
Market-Implied Growth
+12.6%/yr
vs +9.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$0.03 – $0.85
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SKIN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $9.0M · 0.13B shares · net debt $136.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$0.37
-36.4% vs $0.58
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $0.58; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $0.69 | $0.84 | $1.01 | $1.23 | $1.51 |
| 8.1% | $0.42 | $0.52 | $0.63 | $0.77 | $0.94 |
| 9.1% | $0.21 | $0.29 | $0.37 | $0.46 | $0.58 |
| 10.1% | $0.06 | $0.11 | $0.17 | $0.24 | $0.32 |
| 11.1% | N/A | N/A | $0.03 | $0.08 | $0.14 |
