Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SKHY
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor SK hynix Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $5.95 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $7.66 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $9.57 |
Current Price
$162.26
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$7.66
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SKHY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.9B · 7.10B shares · net debt $5.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$7.66
-95.3% vs $162.26
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $162.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $9.14 | $9.68 | $10.30 | $11.02 | $11.85 |
| 10.5% | $7.94 | $8.35 | $8.81 | $9.34 | $9.93 |
| 11.5% | $6.98 | $7.30 | $7.66 | $8.06 | $8.50 |
| 12.5% | $6.21 | $6.46 | $6.74 | $7.05 | $7.39 |
| 13.5% | $5.56 | $5.77 | $5.99 | $6.24 | $6.51 |
