Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SJ
Even the conservative scenario ($4.03) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.6% | $4.03 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.6% | $4.75 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.6% | $6.09 |
Current Price
$0.88
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$4.75
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SJ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $9.6M · 0.04B shares · net cash $43.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$4.75
+439.8% vs $0.88
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $0.88; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $5.63 | $6.05 | $6.56 | $7.22 | $8.09 |
| 7.6% | $4.87 | $5.15 | $5.48 | $5.88 | $6.38 |
| 8.6% | $4.33 | $4.52 | $4.75 | $5.02 | $5.33 |
| 9.6% | $3.92 | $4.06 | $4.23 | $4.41 | $4.63 |
| 10.6% | $3.60 | $3.71 | $3.83 | $3.97 | $4.13 |
