TGM's two-stage DCF values SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. (SITE) between $60.22 and $101.15 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $77.42. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$95.50 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.6%/yr | 11.7% | $60.22 |
| Base case | 6.6%/yr | 10.7% | $77.42 |
| Optimistic | 9.6%/yr | 9.7% | $101.15 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $88.03 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$95.50
Market-Implied Growth
+11.7%/yr
vs +3.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$60.22 – $101.15
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SITE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $242.7M · 0.04B shares · net debt $194.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$77.42
-18.9% vs $95.50
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $95.50; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $92.19 | $97.93 | $105 | $112 | $122 |
| 9.7% | $80.05 | $84.29 | $89.11 | $94.65 | $101 |
| 10.7% | $70.55 | $73.79 | $77.42 | $81.52 | $86.17 |
| 11.7% | $62.94 | $65.47 | $68.28 | $71.41 | $74.91 |
| 12.7% | $56.69 | $58.72 | $60.95 | $63.40 | $66.11 |