Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SIMO
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Silicon Motion Technology Corporation right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.5%/yr | 12.5% | $22.74 |
| Base case | 12.5%/yr | 11.5% | $26.99 |
| Optimistic | 15.5%/yr | 10.5% | $32.74 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $170.94 | |
Current Price
$280.49
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$26.99
model output — not a price target
SIMO DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SIMO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $41.9M · 0.03B shares · net cash $201.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$34.65
-87.6% vs $280.49
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $280.49; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $41.27 | $42.76 | $44.47 | $46.43 | $48.73 |
| 10.5% | $36.63 | $37.71 | $38.92 | $40.30 | $41.87 |
| 11.5% | $32.97 | $33.77 | $34.65 | $35.65 | $36.77 |
| 12.5% | $30.00 | $30.61 | $31.28 | $32.01 | $32.83 |
| 13.5% | $27.56 | $28.03 | $28.54 | $29.10 | $29.72 |
About Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO) is a prominent company specializing in the design, development, and distribution of NAND flash controllers, which are essential components for a wide array of solid-state storage devices. Their product range supports diverse applications, including controllers for computing-grade Solid-State Drives (SSDs) found in personal computers and other client devices. They also provide solutions for enterprise-grade SSDs crucial for data centers, as well as embedded storage such as eMMC and UFS used in smartphones and IoT (Internet of Things) devices. Furthermore, their technology extends to flash memory cards and flash drives for expandable storage, and specialized SSDs designed for industrial, commercial, and automotive applications. The company brands its controller offerings under SMI. Its enterprise-level SSDs are available under the Shannon Systems name, while its integrated industrial-grade SSDs are marketed as Ferri SSD, Ferri-eMMC, and Ferri-UFS. Silicon Motion's sales strategy involves both direct sales teams and a network of independent electronics distributors, serving a customer base that includes major NAND flash manufacturers, module makers, hyperscale cloud providers, and Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Hong Kong, the company boasts a global operational presence, including locations in Taiwan, the United States, South Korea, China, Malaysia, Singapore, and other international markets.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Chia-Chang Kou