Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SIMO
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Silicon Motion Technology Corporation right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.5%/yr | 12.5% | $22.75 |
| Base case | 12.5%/yr | 11.5% | $27.00 |
| Optimistic | 15.5%/yr | 10.5% | $32.75 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $171.31 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$221.42
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$27.00
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SIMO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $41.9M · 0.03B shares · net cash $201.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$27.00
-87.8% vs $221.42
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $221.42; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $30.60 | $31.92 | $33.42 | $35.15 | $37.18 |
| 10.5% | $27.68 | $28.68 | $29.81 | $31.08 | $32.53 |
| 11.5% | $25.36 | $26.14 | $27.00 | $27.97 | $29.05 |
| 12.5% | $23.46 | $24.08 | $24.77 | $25.52 | $26.35 |
| 13.5% | $21.89 | $22.39 | $22.94 | $23.54 | $24.20 |
