Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SIGA
Even the conservative scenario ($10.67) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.6% | $10.67 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.6% | $12.69 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.6% | $16.48 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $8.93 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$3.29
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$12.69
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SIGA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $45.9M · 0.07B shares · net cash $155.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$12.69
+285.8% vs $3.29
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $3.29; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $15.18 | $16.36 | $17.82 | $19.68 | $22.14 |
| 7.6% | $13.04 | $13.82 | $14.75 | $15.89 | $17.29 |
| 8.6% | $11.50 | $12.05 | $12.69 | $13.45 | $14.34 |
| 9.6% | $10.35 | $10.75 | $11.21 | $11.74 | $12.36 |
| 10.6% | $9.44 | $9.75 | $10.10 | $10.49 | $10.94 |
