Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SHW
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($126.80) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$317.51 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +27.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.6% | $59.95 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.6% | $83.59 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.6% | $126.80 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $218.48 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$317.51
Market-Implied Growth
+27.5%/yr
vs -2.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$83.59
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SHW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.4B · 0.25B shares · net debt $12.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$83.59
-73.7% vs $317.51
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $317.51; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $111 | $123 | $136 | $153 | $174 |
| 8.6% | $87.93 | $96.14 | $106 | $117 | $130 |
| 9.6% | $70.65 | $76.70 | $83.59 | $91.51 | $101 |
| 10.6% | $57.16 | $61.77 | $66.94 | $72.79 | $79.44 |
| 11.6% | $46.35 | $49.96 | $53.96 | $58.41 | $63.40 |
