Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SHW
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($141.97) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$326.09 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +26.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.5% | $70.84 |
| Base case | 2.2%/yr | 9.5% | $96.57 |
| Optimistic | 5.2%/yr | 8.5% | $141.97 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $214.16 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$326.09
Market-Implied Growth
+26.7%/yr
vs -0.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$96.57
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SHW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.4B · 0.24B shares · net debt $10.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$96.57
-70.4% vs $326.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $326.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $125 | $138 | $153 | $171 | $193 |
| 8.5% | $101 | $110 | $120 | $132 | $146 |
| 9.5% | $82.89 | $89.28 | $96.57 | $105 | $115 |
| 10.5% | $68.74 | $73.59 | $79.04 | $85.21 | $92.24 |
| 11.5% | $57.41 | $61.20 | $65.40 | $70.09 | $75.35 |
