Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SHEL
Even the conservative scenario ($212.11) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$90.47 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -15.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.3%/yr | 8.5% | $212.11 |
| Base case | 8.3%/yr | 7.5% | $295.77 |
| Optimistic | 11.3%/yr | 6.5% | $429.52 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 14, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $304.16 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$90.47
Market-Implied Growth
-15.9%/yr
vs +8.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$295.77
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SHEL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $33.1B · 2.79B shares · net debt $45.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$295.77
+226.9% vs $90.47
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $90.47; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $390 | $441 | $510 | $605 | $748 |
| 6.5% | $307 | $338 | $376 | $425 | $491 |
| 7.5% | $251 | $272 | $296 | $325 | $362 |
| 8.5% | $212 | $226 | $242 | $262 | $285 |
| 9.5% | $182 | $192 | $204 | $218 | $234 |
