Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SGU
Even the conservative scenario ($31.78) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$12.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -19.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $31.78 |
| Base case | 2.1%/yr | 7.5% | $42.39 |
| Optimistic | 5.1%/yr | 6.5% | $62.81 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $32.19 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$12.83
Market-Implied Growth
-19.1%/yr
vs -1.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$42.39
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SGU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $78.2M · 0.03B shares · net debt $183.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$42.39
+230.4% vs $12.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $12.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $56.47 | $64.12 | $74.30 | $88.56 | $110 |
| 6.5% | $44.03 | $48.62 | $54.36 | $61.73 | $71.54 |
| 7.5% | $35.74 | $38.76 | $42.39 | $46.82 | $52.35 |
| 8.5% | $29.81 | $31.94 | $34.41 | $37.33 | $40.83 |
| 9.5% | $25.37 | $26.93 | $28.71 | $30.76 | $33.14 |
