Star Group, L.P. (SGU) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SGU
Even the conservative scenario ($36.48) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$12.93 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -19.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.0%/yr | 8.5% | $36.48 |
| Base case | 6.0%/yr | 7.5% | $51.61 |
| Optimistic | 9.0%/yr | 6.5% | $75.81 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $36.33 | |
Current Price
$12.93
Market-Implied Growth
-19.7%/yr
vs +6.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$51.61
model output — not a price target
SGU DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SGU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $78.2M · 0.03B shares · net debt $163.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$59.49
+360.1% vs $12.93
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $12.93; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $82.80 | $92.21 | $105 | $122 | $149 |
| 6.5% | $64.34 | $69.71 | $76.43 | $85.07 | $96.59 |
| 7.5% | $52.08 | $55.45 | $59.49 | $64.43 | $70.61 |
| 8.5% | $43.36 | $45.61 | $48.23 | $51.33 | $55.05 |
| 9.5% | $36.85 | $38.42 | $40.22 | $42.29 | $44.70 |
About Star Group, L.P.
Star Group, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, provides home heating oil and propane products and services to residential and commercial customers in the United States. It offers gasoline and diesel fuel; and installs, maintains, and repairs heating and air conditioning equipment and ancillary services. As of September 30, 2025, the company served approximately 406,400 full-service residential and commercial home heating oil and propane customers and 63,200 customers on a delivery only basis. It sells gasoline and diesel fuel to approximately 27,700 customers. The company was formerly known as Star Gas Partners, L.P. and changed its name to Star Group, L.P. in October 2017. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Stamford, Connecticut.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
- CEO
- Jeffrey Woosnam