Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SGU
Even the conservative scenario ($36.22) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$12.71 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -19.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.8%/yr | 8.5% | $36.22 |
| Base case | 5.8%/yr | 7.5% | $51.25 |
| Optimistic | 8.8%/yr | 6.5% | $75.29 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $34.82 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$12.71
Market-Implied Growth
-19.9%/yr
vs +5.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$51.25
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SGU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $78.2M · 0.03B shares · net debt $163.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$51.25
+303.3% vs $12.71
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $12.71; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $68.07 | $77.20 | $89.36 | $106 | $132 |
| 6.5% | $53.21 | $58.69 | $65.54 | $74.33 | $86.04 |
| 7.5% | $43.32 | $46.93 | $51.25 | $56.53 | $63.13 |
| 8.5% | $36.26 | $38.79 | $41.74 | $45.22 | $49.38 |
| 9.5% | $30.98 | $32.83 | $34.95 | $37.39 | $40.23 |
