A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$13.41 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +19.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.9%/yr | 12.5% | N/A |
| Base case | 9.9%/yr | 11.5% | $3.69 |
| Optimistic | 12.9%/yr | 10.5% | $10.05 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $102.02 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$13.41
Market-Implied Growth
+19.0%/yr
vs -0.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SGRY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $200.3M · 0.13B shares · net debt $2.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$3.69
-72.5% vs $13.41
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $13.41; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $7.62 | $9.06 | $10.70 | $12.60 | $14.81 |
| 10.5% | $4.44 | $5.53 | $6.76 | $8.14 | $9.73 |
| 11.5% | $1.89 | $2.75 | $3.69 | $4.74 | $5.93 |
| 12.5% | N/A | $0.50 | $1.24 | $2.07 | $2.98 |
| 13.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $0.62 |
