TGM's two-stage DCF values Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) between $51.78 and $115.31 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $76.34. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$85.95 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.6% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.6%/yr | 8.6% | $51.78 |
| Base case | 8.6%/yr | 7.6% | $76.34 |
| Optimistic | 11.6%/yr | 6.6% | $115.31 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $77.66 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$85.95
Market-Implied Growth
+11.0%/yr
vs +10.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$51.78 – $115.31
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SFM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $331.1M · 0.09B shares · net debt $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$76.34
-11.2% vs $85.95
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $85.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $104 | $118 | $138 | $165 | $204 |
| 6.6% | $79.60 | $88.50 | $99.56 | $114 | $132 |
| 7.6% | $63.39 | $69.29 | $76.34 | $84.91 | $95.56 |
| 8.6% | $51.77 | $55.93 | $60.75 | $66.44 | $73.23 |
| 9.6% | $43.04 | $46.10 | $49.58 | $53.58 | $58.24 |
