TGM's two-stage DCF values Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) between $1.77 and $2.37 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $1.98. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$2.69 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $1.77 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $1.98 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $2.37 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $6.66 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$2.69
Market-Implied Growth
+12.2%/yr
vs -8.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$1.77 – $2.37
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SFIX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $17.0M · 0.13B shares · net cash $74.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$1.98
-26.1% vs $2.69
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $2.69; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $2.21 | $2.30 | $2.39 | $2.50 | $2.63 |
| 10.5% | $2.03 | $2.09 | $2.16 | $2.24 | $2.33 |
| 11.5% | $1.88 | $1.93 | $1.98 | $2.05 | $2.11 |
| 12.5% | $1.76 | $1.80 | $1.84 | $1.89 | $1.94 |
| 13.5% | $1.66 | $1.69 | $1.73 | $1.76 | $1.81 |
