TGM's two-stage DCF values Sea Limited (SE) between $72.63 and $108.27 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $89.45. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$100.00 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +21.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $72.63 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $89.45 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $108.27 |
Current Price
$100.00
Market-Implied Growth
+21.2%/yr
vs +36.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$72.63 – $108.27
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.4B · 0.60B shares · net cash $4.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$89.45
-10.5% vs $100.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $100.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $104 | $109 | $116 | $123 | $131 |
| 10.5% | $92.21 | $96.27 | $101 | $106 | $112 |
| 11.5% | $82.80 | $85.95 | $89.45 | $93.36 | $97.75 |
| 12.5% | $75.13 | $77.64 | $80.40 | $83.44 | $86.82 |
| 13.5% | $68.78 | $70.81 | $73.03 | $75.45 | $78.11 |
