TGM's two-stage DCF values Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. (SCZM) between $4.50 and $6.70 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $5.54. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$8.96 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +32.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $4.50 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $5.54 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $6.70 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $2.71 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$8.96
Market-Implied Growth
+32.0%/yr
vs +56.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$4.50 – $6.70
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SCZM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $22.7M · 0.09B shares · net cash $42.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$5.54
-38.2% vs $8.96
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $8.96; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $6.44 | $6.77 | $7.14 | $7.57 | $8.08 |
| 10.5% | $5.71 | $5.96 | $6.24 | $6.56 | $6.92 |
| 11.5% | $5.13 | $5.32 | $5.54 | $5.78 | $6.05 |
| 12.5% | $4.66 | $4.81 | $4.98 | $5.17 | $5.38 |
| 13.5% | $4.27 | $4.39 | $4.53 | $4.68 | $4.84 |
