Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SBLK
Even the conservative scenario ($60.05) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$29.98 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -11.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.8%/yr | 8.7% | $60.05 |
| Base case | 9.8%/yr | 7.7% | $83.30 |
| Optimistic | 12.8%/yr | 6.7% | $119.93 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $33.62 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$29.98
Market-Implied Growth
-11.4%/yr
vs +13.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$83.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SBLK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $366.9M · 0.11B shares · net debt $559.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$83.30
+177.8% vs $29.98
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $29.98; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $109 | $123 | $140 | $165 | $200 |
| 6.7% | $86.43 | $94.76 | $105 | $118 | $135 |
| 7.7% | $71.12 | $76.68 | $83.30 | $91.33 | $101 |
| 8.7% | $60.09 | $64.02 | $68.58 | $73.94 | $80.32 |
| 9.7% | $51.76 | $54.67 | $57.97 | $61.77 | $66.17 |
