Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SBGSY
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($34.09) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$69.90 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +31.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.6%/yr | 10.8% | $17.91 |
| Base case | 7.6%/yr | 9.8% | $24.60 |
| Optimistic | 10.6%/yr | 8.8% | $34.09 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $30.76 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$69.90
Market-Implied Growth
+31.4%/yr
vs +6.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$24.60
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SBGSY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.9B · 2.82B shares · net debt $15.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$24.60
-64.8% vs $69.90
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $69.90; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $30.71 | $33.27 | $36.31 | $39.98 | $44.50 |
| 8.8% | $25.59 | $27.41 | $29.52 | $31.99 | $34.92 |
| 9.8% | $21.71 | $23.06 | $24.60 | $26.36 | $28.39 |
| 10.8% | $18.67 | $19.71 | $20.87 | $22.17 | $23.65 |
| 11.8% | $16.23 | $17.04 | $17.94 | $18.94 | $20.06 |
