TGM's two-stage DCF values SAP SE (SAP) between $78.94 and $148.72 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $106.27. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$205.81 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.0%/yr | 8.9% | $78.94 |
| Base case | 6.0%/yr | 7.9% | $106.27 |
| Optimistic | 9.0%/yr | 6.9% | $148.72 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 7, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $142.51 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$205.81
Market-Implied Growth
+22.2%/yr
vs +5.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$78.94 – $148.72
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SAP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.6B · 1.17B shares · net cash $174.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$106.27
-48.4% vs $205.81
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $205.81; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | $135 | $150 | $170 | $196 | $233 |
| 6.9% | $110 | $119 | $131 | $145 | $164 |
| 7.9% | $92.40 | $98.75 | $106 | $115 | $126 |
| 8.9% | $79.62 | $84.16 | $89.40 | $95.53 | $103 |
| 9.9% | $69.90 | $73.28 | $77.11 | $81.49 | $86.55 |
