TGM's two-stage DCF values Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) between $124.10 and $271.39 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $173.94. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$124.59 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -3.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $124.10 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $173.94 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $271.39 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $253.49 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$124.59
Market-Implied Growth
-3.5%/yr
vs -4.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$124.10 – $271.39
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SAIC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $482.5M · 0.04B shares · net debt $2.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$173.94
+39.6% vs $124.59
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $124.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $241 | $278 | $326 | $394 | $496 |
| 6.5% | $182 | $204 | $231 | $266 | $313 |
| 7.5% | $142 | $157 | $174 | $195 | $221 |
| 8.5% | $114 | $124 | $136 | $150 | $166 |
| 9.5% | $92.76 | $100 | $109 | $118 | $130 |
