Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SAIA
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Saia, Inc. right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.0%/yr | 12.5% | $21.96 |
| Base case | 11.0%/yr | 11.5% | $29.96 |
| Optimistic | 14.0%/yr | 10.5% | $40.77 |
Current Price
$342.04
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$29.96
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SAIA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $66.5M · 0.03B shares · net debt $256.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$29.96
-91.2% vs $342.04
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $342.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $36.68 | $39.14 | $41.95 | $45.19 | $48.96 |
| 10.5% | $31.23 | $33.10 | $35.20 | $37.57 | $40.28 |
| 11.5% | $26.89 | $28.34 | $29.96 | $31.76 | $33.78 |
| 12.5% | $23.34 | $24.50 | $25.78 | $27.18 | $28.74 |
| 13.5% | $20.40 | $21.34 | $22.37 | $23.49 | $24.71 |
