Why we don't show a single “fair value” for RYCEY
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($9.35) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$20.64 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +42.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.7%/yr | 11.5% | $5.88 |
| Base case | 12.7%/yr | 10.5% | $7.33 |
| Optimistic | 15.7%/yr | 9.5% | $9.35 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $9.15 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$20.64
Market-Implied Growth
+42.0%/yr
vs +12.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$7.33
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RYCEY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.9B · 8.33B shares · net cash $4.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$7.33
-64.5% vs $20.64
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $20.64; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $8.63 | $9.14 | $9.74 | $10.45 | $11.30 |
| 9.5% | $7.56 | $7.93 | $8.36 | $8.86 | $9.44 |
| 10.5% | $6.73 | $7.01 | $7.33 | $7.70 | $8.11 |
| 11.5% | $6.06 | $6.29 | $6.53 | $6.81 | $7.12 |
| 12.5% | $5.52 | $5.70 | $5.90 | $6.11 | $6.35 |
