Why we don't show a single “fair value” for RVTY
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($67.35) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$144.54 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +24.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.5% | $33.64 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.5% | $45.55 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.5% | $67.35 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $85.96 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$144.54
Market-Implied Growth
+24.8%/yr
vs -16.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$45.55
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RVTY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $525.0M · 0.11B shares · net debt $2.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$45.55
-68.5% vs $144.54
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $144.54; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $59.37 | $65.32 | $72.45 | $81.16 | $92.04 |
| 8.5% | $47.72 | $51.90 | $56.76 | $62.50 | $69.38 |
| 9.5% | $38.98 | $42.05 | $45.55 | $49.57 | $54.27 |
| 10.5% | $32.19 | $34.52 | $37.14 | $40.09 | $43.47 |
| 11.5% | $26.76 | $28.58 | $30.59 | $32.84 | $35.37 |
