TGM's two-stage DCF values Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) between $134.09 and $263.58 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $183.92. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$214.26 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.9%/yr | 8.5% | $134.09 |
| Base case | 9.9%/yr | 7.5% | $183.92 |
| Optimistic | 12.9%/yr | 6.5% | $263.58 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 12, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $241.72 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$214.26
Market-Implied Growth
+13.5%/yr
vs +18.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$134.09 – $263.58
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RSG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.0B · 0.31B shares · net debt $520.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$183.92
-14.2% vs $214.26
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $214.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $240 | $271 | $312 | $369 | $455 |
| 6.5% | $191 | $209 | $232 | $261 | $301 |
| 7.5% | $157 | $169 | $184 | $202 | $224 |
| 8.5% | $134 | $142 | $152 | $164 | $178 |
| 9.5% | $116 | $122 | $129 | $137 | $147 |
