Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) between $145.64 and $286.45 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $199.83. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$216.39 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.9%/yr | 8.5% | $145.64 |
| Base case | 11.9%/yr | 7.5% | $199.83 |
| Optimistic | 14.9%/yr | 6.5% | $286.45 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $253.78 | |
Current Price
$216.39
Market-Implied Growth
+13.8%/yr
vs +13.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$145.64 – $286.45
model output — not a price target
RSG DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RSG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.0B · 0.31B shares · net debt $520.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$283.68
+31.1% vs $216.39
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $216.39; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $393 | $438 | $498 | $582 | $708 |
| 6.5% | $306 | $332 | $364 | $405 | $460 |
| 7.5% | $248 | $264 | $284 | $307 | $337 |
| 8.5% | $207 | $218 | $231 | $245 | $263 |
| 9.5% | $177 | $185 | $193 | $203 | $215 |
About Republic Services, Inc.
Republic Services, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, delivers comprehensive environmental services across the United States. The company specializes in the collection and processing of recyclable materials, alongside the gathering, transfer, and responsible disposal of non-hazardous solid waste, in addition to other environmental solutions. Its collection activities encompass curbside pickups, facilitating transport to transfer stations, landfills, or recycling facilities; the provision of waste and recycling containers; and compactor rentals. Beyond collection, Republic Services engages in the processing and sale of commodities such as old corrugated containers, newsprint, aluminum, and glass. The company also operates landfill and transfer services, manages the disposal of non-hazardous solid and liquid industrial waste, and provides on-site logistics and transportation. Serving a broad customer base, including residential, small-container, and large-container clients, Republic Services maintains a vast operational footprint. As of December 31, 2021, this included 356 collection operations, 239 transfer stations, 198 active landfills, 71 recycling processing centers, 6 saltwater disposal wells, 7 deep injection wells, and 3 treatment, recovery, and disposal facilities across 41 states. Furthermore, it oversees 77 landfill gas-to-energy and renewable energy projects and manages 124 closed landfills. The company, founded in 1996, is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Waste Management
- CEO
- Jon Vander Ark